Even with Thaksin in the saddle, horse is going nowhere
HARD TALK
by Thepchai Yong, The Nation, Bangkok
Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has decided to end his month-long game of political hide-and-seek. While his political comeback is seen as a morale booster for his Thai Rak Thai Party, it will also certainly heighten political tensions.
The Thai Rak Thai PR machine was quick to paint Thaksin as an indispensable political leader who is needed back in the saddle to deal with the country's economic and social woes. But his detractors believe the whole exercise is nothing more than a political expedient to resurrect the disgraced leader.
If Thaksin's reason for taking leave in the first place was ambiguous, his excuse for coming back to Government House is even more dubious.
Thaksin took his leave after vowing to take a political break following his party's landslide but legally questionable victory in the April 2 election. Bidding farewell to Government House staff, Thaksin packed his personal stuff and handed over his duties to his first deputy, Police General Chidchai Vanasatidya, whose only claim to fame is his unwavering loyalty to his boss.
Thaksin obviously didn't care whether his former classmate was up to the country's most important political job at this most critical time. He left the nation practically rudderless while he enjoyed handshakes with a number of world leaders who were arm-twisted into receiving him during a series of overseas trips.
While the violence in the South escalated and the oil price-driven economic woes took their toll on the people, Thaksin basked in his new status as an "unemployed prime minister", whiling away his time in upscale shopping malls and on golf courses.
Most of his Cabinet members seemed to be taking a cue from him - though not officially as he did. Very few of them were known to be taking their caretaker jobs seriously. They were obviously more concerned about their political future, as the mess resulting from the nullified general election was snowballing into a major political crisis.
Even Chidchai, who also holds the post of justice minister, never gave the impression that he was the man in charge. Tackling the violence in the South, which was once his top priority, was suddenly treated as a routine task to be delegated to bureaucrats and Army personnel.
The political vacuum also left the economy faltering amid a slowdown and rising fuel prices. And none of Thaksin's men in Government House could provide any assurance that someone was doing something about it.
All this was happening against the backdrop of a political impasse that had paralysed the whole nation. The Constitutional Court ruled that the April 2 election was null and void, and a new election, according to the Election Commission, won't be held until late October.
But that's not the end of the problems. The Election Commission is so discredited that its legitimacy to conduct another election is a big question mark. Even the country's top judges have joined the chorus calling on the remaining three election commissioners to quit.
The next few weeks are likely to see a new round of potentially explosive confrontations. The Thaksin government and the Thai Rak Thai Party have made known their readiness to defend the Election Commission at all costs. Tens of thousands of supporters of the ruling party are being mobilised to march back to Bangkok for a showdown with Thaksin's detractors, who are stepping up their campaign against the commission.
So the question is whether Thaksin will improve things or make them worse with his comeback.
For Thai Rak Thai, its leader's sudden political re-entry was definitely a boon to its rank and file, who have been badly demoralised by the changing political tide. The party is facing the possibility of dissolution after a sub-committee of the Election Commission found some of its top officials to be involved in bribing small parties to contest the April 2 election. Thaksin himself is facing a lawsuit in the Administrative Court that threatens to strip him of the premiership for alleged dereliction of duty.
But it's the pending election that was probably a major factor in prompting Thaksin to end his break. Without their leader actively at the helm, Thai Rak Thai was obviously as disoriented as the government itself. The prolonged political stalemate that was already causing rumblings within the party threatened to intensify factional conflicts that might result in mass defections.
So it's fairly easy to see the reasons for Thaksin's latest political flip-flop. Salvaging Thai Rak Thai's sagging image and saving it from a possible disintegration was at the top of his agenda. The party also badly needs him to lead the charge into the next election.
But for the public at large, Thaksin's return signals a protracted deadlock. Lest he forget, the political anarchy in the country now is entirely Thaksin's doing. His six-week political hiatus only compounded it.
Thaksin's resumption of the premiership will not in any way dispel the charges of conflict of interest, abuse of power and interference with independent bodies that have been levelled against him and which were the reasons for him being rejected by large sections of society. His party's continuing support for the embattled election commissioners also lends weight to the accusation that they are working hand-in-glove.
If the election date as proposed by the Election Commission holds, it means that the current caretaker government with Thaksin at the helm will continue to hold power for another five months. And that means another five months of political uncertainty.
Thaksin's political juggling only proves that his style of CEO leadership has been a big failure and his Thai Rak Thai is anything but a political institution. Even top level Cabinet members, including his second in command, often cited as his possible political heirs, were helpless without their commander-in-chief around.
If the drug problem and violence in the South have worsened - the reasons cited for his return - it wasn't because Thaksin was on leave. It was because the caretaker prime minister had chosen a bad team.
Do we really have to put up with another five months of political mess under a grossly incompetent government headed by a scandal-tainted prime minister?
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