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1/09/2007

Junta faces charges they are too gentlemanly for their own good

Analysis: Junta faces charges they are too gentlemanly for their own good

Are the CNS and the government tough enough to ensure stability in their administration?

by Nattaya Chetchotiros

The Surayud government and Council for National Security (CNS) are caught between a rock and a hard place. The New Year's Eve bombings have highlighted this fact. The dilemma for the coup-makers and the interim government is how tough they should be with the so-called "old power" network. If they are ruthless and uproot elements associated with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, they risk being labelled as power-hungry and unfair.

Should they do this in a more compromising, gentlemanly fashion - which apparently is the path both the Surayud government and CNS have been pursuing - then there is the greater risk that their stability will be rocked, which is the case at present.

It has been almost four months since the Sept 19 military coup. So far, the interim government and CNS have not effectively touched the "old power" network which they allege was corrupt. The "clique" connotes not only Mr Thaksin and his family but a whole network of militarymen, policemen, bureaucrats, business and grassroots people who benefited from the Thaksin administration's populist policies.

Somjai Phagaphasvivat, from Thammasat University's Faculty of Political Science, says that unless the CNS and the government get tough with these remnants of old power, they are unlikely to get their job done.

He says there are people who gained some form of benefit from the past administration who have managed to stay on in the current one, as well as in the CNS. Their presence makes it difficult for the coup-makers or the government to come up with evidence against the Thaksin government or any effective clean-up measures, as they are afraid they would be dragged into the net too.

Besides, both the government and CNS are under pressure to be fair to the old power. They have chosen to stick to the law and follow a lawful and transparent - albeit slow - process of investigating corruption allegations instead of seizing the assets first, which was what every coup-maker did in the past. The lenient approach, however, has given room for the old power to do some manipulative work to destabilise the government, Mr Somjai said.

To cope with the problem at hand, he suggests that the CNS and government toughen themselves. They must be goal-oriented. They must be decisive. If that means they must change their personnel, so be it.

"Although [CNS chairman] Gen Sonthi insists that all the eight leading members of the CNS are united, I believe this will remain so for no more than two months. They will face increasing pressure from the international community. They will face a crisis of confidence. They will be forced to make some kind of change," Mr Somjai said.

As for the government, the political scientist suggests that it rethink and, if possible, immediately overhaul its communications strategy, especially its use of the mass media. Unlike the media-savvy Thaksin government, the Surayud team has no edge in this area. Even the government's spokesman is not well-versed in politics or capable of explaining anything of meaning to the public.

Mr Somjai added that the government does not seem to have any long-term plan or strategy when it comes to politics, either. At present, it seems to be dealing with each problem as it arrives. The cabinet may be able to boast of their overall qualities as good, decent people, but it suffers terribly from being collectively dull as well.

In short, when it comes to political and communications strategy, the Surayud government is outclassed by its predecessor, he says. "It may be the case that the situation at present is too vile for a good person like Gen Surayud. By their nature, the government and CNS may not be suitable for the situation and that is why they have not succeeded in managing the administrative power they have seized," Mr Somjai said.

Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, however, does not believe the government or CNS can get tough and rough things out the way coup-makers of the past might have done. Considering the coup's lack of legitimacy in the eyes of the international community, and the fact that the CNS and government would not want to turn 16 million people who voted for Mr Thaksin in the past into their enemy, the reconciliatory approach they have taken was their only option.

He agreed with Mr Somjai that this choice has its setbacks in the bureaucratic foot-dragging, thus causing delays in exposing alleged irregularities of the past government. The slowness may upset the public, which is keenly waiting for results of the investigations.

Mr Chaiyan believes that the New Year's Eve bombs in Bangkok has diverted the public's attention from the important matter at hand, which is the ongoing corruption investigation. To regain their footing, the lecturer suggests that the government and CNS take everyone who has any connections with Mr Thaksin off the Bangkok bomb investigation team - be they deputy national police chief Pol Gen Achiravit Supanpesat, assistant national police chief Pol Lt-Gen Jongrak Chuthanont or Pol Lt-Gen Panupong Singhara na Ayudhya who has been assigned to head the investigation.

"These officers are known to be close to Thaksin but the government has kept them in their jobs. The result is we haven't seen any solid evidence or much progress in the case, which further discredits the government," said Mr Chaiyan.

Gen Winai Phattiyakul, defence permanent secretary and secretary-general of the CNS, said that Prime Minister Surayud's interviews suggest that he has given a deadline for the national police chief Kowit Wattana to come up with answers regarding the eight blasts in Bangkok. If the deadline lapses and nothing comes up, the CNS will miss one member, but that wouldn't be a problem.

"Our friendship remains the same. The question of professional efficiency is not related to that," Gen Winai said. He admitted that both the government and CNS are not yet on top of the country's political developments. He also conceded that they will need to adjust their planning and communications.

A source close to PM Surayud revealed that the government is perceived as being weak because it can't put its own people in key offices, especially in the national police force, which is seen as a seat of power of the ousted prime minister who was a former policeman.

According to the source, calls were made to PM Surayud to fire the police chief. But then again, the government has its hands tied in its attempt to do things properly and not give the impression that it was unfairly bent on firing Mr Thaksin's people.

The problem is the "old power" clique has at their disposal an almost limitless amount of money. From now until June, when the case against the Thai Rak Thai party will be heard, the money and old power network can cause a lot of chaos. The government and CNS will need to make a quick decision - whether they want to get tough, or continue to act the gentleman.

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